Braz. political sci. rev.2022;16(3):e0002.
The Relationship between Ideology and COVID-19 Deaths: What We Know and What We Still Need to Know
Lorena Barberia
, Natália de Paula Moreira
, Rebeca de Jesus Carvalho
, Maria Leticia Claro Oliveira
, Isabel Seelaender Costa Rosa
, Marcela Zamudio
DOI: 10.1590/1981-3821202200030001
Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election of 2018 is positively associated with COVID-19 infections and deaths in Brazil. In these studies, COVID-19 outcomes in 2020 and 2021 are the dependent variables, and votes for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election (as a proxy for ideology) are the key explanatory variable. This article discusses why ecological research designs are difficult to test empirically. We discuss why correlations between vote shares and COVID-19 outcomes using aggregate data can produce biased inferences, and we specifically focus on measurement error, aggregation bias, and spatial and temporal dynamics.
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